A growing number of Washington residents seem resigned to the idea that the state's economy will bump along the bottom for a year or more rather than quickly bouncing back from recession.
That's one way to read the results of the latest Elway Poll, conducted Oct. 15-18.
"The best one could say about Washingtonians' description of the state's economy is that it has become slightly less negative in the last five months," Elway reports.
Forty percent of respondents said the economy has stabilized, and another 9 percent said it has "turned the corner" — a combined 49 percent that's almost unchanged from the 47 percent in Elway's poll five months earlier. The survey showed that 42 percent expect the economy to get worse, down from 51 percent in the May poll.
On the other hand, expectations for a decent recovery have stretched farther out. This month, just as in May, 43 percent said the economy would see a significant improvement within a year.
But 48 percent of those polled this month predicted the recovery will take longer — more than the 42 percent who held that pessimistic view in the earlier poll. (The number who had no opinion more than doubled, from 4 percent in May to 9 percent this month.)
The upshot, writes Elway: "Economists may be saying the recession is over, but Washingtonians see the current conditions as the new normal for at least the next year."
Some demographic nuggets from the poll:
• Eastern Washington residents are notably more downbeat — 50 percent expect economic conditions to worsen before they improve, an outlook shared by only 38 percent in central Puget Sound.
• Among single-income couples, 58 percent foresee the economy deteriorating further, while only 36 percent of two-income couples expect that.
• Most optimistic were men in two-income households — 18 percent said the economy has turned the corner. Women in two-income households, by contrast, were less hopeful, with only 6 percent in the "turned the corner" camp.
• Among the most pessimistic were respondents in households with no wage earners — 68 percent said the economy would worsen.
The polling company conducted the telephone interviews with 405 adult residents of Washington state. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5 percent.
Posted in News on Sunday, October 25, 2009 12:00 am
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