OLYMPIA — A jobless economic recovery has translated into a “revenue-less” recovery for state government, blowing open a $2.6 billion budget shortfall in just six months, officials said Thursday.
“The good news is the economy is finally recovering. The bad news is that revenue is not,” state chief economist Arun Raha told a council of lawmakers.
In the latest in a series of pessimistic revenue forecasts he’s given over the past year, Raha revised downward by $760 million the amount he anticipates the state will collect in the 18 months remaining in the current two-year budget cycle.
The shortfall has grown large enough for majority Democrats to broach the topic of tax increases. The suggestion drew an emphatic “absolutely not” Thursday from Kalama Rep. Ed Orcutt, the lead Republican on the House Finance Committee.
“We can’t afford to raise taxes on working families or businesses that are already struggling,” Orcutt said.
The two Democratic lawmakers on the forecast council noted that legislators this year closed a $9 billion deficit almost entirely with spending reductions and said that another round of multi-billion-dollar cuts will be harmful to education and public safety, and to those who have been thrown into poverty by the recession and need government help.
“Places that are left to cut are, for me, personally, unacceptable,” said Sen. Craig Pridemore, D-Vancouver. “For me, personally, taxes are on the table.”
Lawmakers passed a two-year, $27 billion budget in April. Since then, the state has seen increased demands on schools, prisons and social services, and incurred higher than-expected costs for fighting forest fires and repairing landslides. State officials also were overly optimistic about how much state departments could trim from their budgets over the summer.
A bigger problem, however, has been revenue falling short of Raha’s previous projections.
The state relies heavily on sales taxes, and consumers will continue giving priority to saving money and paying off credit cards as long as jobs are scarce, said Raha, who predicted the state’s unemployment will rise from its current 9. 3 percent and peak at 9.8 percent in the spring.
Raha’s forecast Thursday was his gloomiest yet, and the last one he will make before Gov. Chris Gregoire submits a budget proposal to lawmakers. Gregoire’s budget director, Victor Moore, said Raha’s report was worse than he expected.
“It’s getting to be a little numbing — the size of the mountain we have to climb,” Moore said. “I don’t see the path yet. We’re working on it.”
Moore did not rule out proposing tax increases and neither did Pridemore and the other Democratic lawmaker on the forecast council.
House Finance Committee Chairman Ross Hunter, D-Medina, said legislators will look at increasing taxes, but more cuts are inevitable when lawmakers convene for a 60-day session in January.
“We’re not going to raise $2.6 billion with taxes,” Hunter said. “We’re going to see deep, pervasive cuts.”
Ridgefield Sen. Joe Zarelli, the top-ranking Republican on the Senate budget committee, acknowledged the problem faced by Gregoire and majority Democrats.
“This is an extraordinary situation. It’s very difficult, I think, for the governor’s office and those involved in the majority position,” he said.
Zarelli urged Democrats to work with Republicans to find ways to deliver government services for less money. Without making government “better and more efficient,” legislators will face another shortfall next year, he said.
“If we miss this opportunity, then we’re going to create a lot of problems for ourselves,” Zarelli said.
Senate budget committee vice chairman Rodney Tom, D-Medina, said Democrats haven’t developed a budget blueprint yet, but he said raising sales, business or property taxes “would be a last resort.”
Instead, Tom said, Democrats may look at closing tax “loopholes” and raising “sin” taxes. Tom said that as far as he’s concerned the “sins” to be taxed could include foods that contribute to health problems, which drive up government costs.
“I think you’re going to have to look at the bakery goods, the candy, the sugar pops,” he said.
Posted in Local on Thursday, November 19, 2009 12:00 am
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