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Business leaders optimistic about local economic recovery

Thursday, December 4, 2008 5:43 PM PST

By Erik Olson

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The roughly 150 attendees at Cowlitz County’s annual economic summit Wednesday night weren’t treated to much good news. They heard that local governments are facing tough budget cuts, the housing market has cooled and healthcare costs are expected to rise.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom. The country may be in a recession, but the local and national economy will recover, guest speakers told the crowd at the Cowlitz Expo Center. Plus, the area has seen positive developments this year, such as the completion of the Cameron Family Glass plant in Kalama.

“I don’t personally buy into the idea that we are about to drop into the abyss,” Longview real estate broker Gerry Flaskerud said.

The Kelso Longview Chamber of Commerce and the Cowlitz Economic Development Council sponsored the third annual economic summit, which featured eight speakers on topics including education, crime, health care and business following a buffet dinner.

Longview School Board Chairman Ted Thomas and Kelso School Board member Patty Wood kicked off the evening with a sobering presentation on $6 billion budget shortfall state lawmakers are expected to face in January.

Education is a priority of the state, but the gaping budget will likely mean staff reductions, program cuts and even school closures in some districts in the state, the board members said.

“The problem is serious. I don’t envy anybody on (Capitol) Hill and what they have to do,” Thomas said.

Educators will be making the case to lawmakers in Olympia to keep cuts in schools to a minimum, he said.

“We are soldiering on, in spite of the issues and the financial difficulties. We are hoping there are some other solutions than slash and burn.”

Crime rates in Longview has been dropping steadily over the past five years, but a slow economy will present challenges for law enforcement, Longview Police Chief Alex Perez said. The police force currently is down four officers, but the bigger issue is how people behave when times are tough, he said.

“When people despair, they often resort to self-medication” in increased alcohol and drug use, Perez said.

“For me, the shorter the recession, the better for all.”

Cowlitz County and the state have seen some good along with the bad in the year since economists decided the recession started, said George Sharp, education and training coordinator for the state’s Department of Community, Trade and Economic Development.

State exports and tourism are growing, he said. And in addition to the Kalama glass plant, Cowlitz County earned two state awards for economic development development. And, he said, the area is poised to embrace the new economy based on green energy.

“The spirit is going to prevail, and we’ll move forward,” Sharp said.

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FiscalConservative wrote on Dec 4, 2008 5:59 AM:

" The local area has treated me well with good people who spend time in my store. Unfortunately, I think that I will be closing by mid-january if things do not change. My business has been hemoraging cash for 4 months now. I have cut back to the bones, but loans to keep going are becoming to tough to repay. For those who can march on, good luck! "

comvoice wrote on Dec 4, 2008 8:39 AM:

" Again we here that Tourism is growing in the State, were and how, since we have Mt. St. Helens, a worldwide attraction, what has the State done to help promote this for SW Washington? And were has the State been on the National Park debate? We have been waiting 28 years to see the clean industry of tourism come to Cowlitz County, how much longer before it get here? "

Rural Citizen wrote on Dec 4, 2008 8:50 AM:

" The hard cold truth is that Cowlitz County has been in its own recession for decades. We are 30 years behind the 8 ball in most areas. A downturn in the national economy won't even be felt here.

The people of our area certainly know how to live in hard times. We will fare well.

Those that are in trouble are the ones who have always had money. They don't know how to cope when times are tough. "

Lucky7 wrote on Dec 4, 2008 9:04 AM:

" It's difficult to be optimistic about the economy these days. This is pretty much the gloomiest Holiday Season I've ever experienced. I've been a partner in a local business for over a decade and I've never seen it as slow as the last 2 months... ever. My partner tells this is similar to the early 80's but I was a college student back then really don't remember too much about that recession. We were hit pretty hard after 9/11 but nothing like this. We were doing ok through September but it's like someone put up a closed sign and shut the phones off about the last week of September. After seeing October sales off about 30-35% I've been pouring over my November financial report and Novembers off 45-50%. We've cut back to the bone through layoffs and reduced hours (including my own) among other things and I'm not sure if it'll be enough. If this recession continues more than a few more months we'll be looking to sell or close down. I'm actually considering getting into the collection business as I hear it's booming right now. "

Longview 88 wrote on Dec 4, 2008 9:37 AM:

" I am not going to mention any specific names, but I do know that there are several well-established local businesses which are really struggling, including the one I work at, and have been forced to cut back. Not to mention some suppliers that have cut back deliveries to local businesses, due to the suppliers themselves cutting back, which does not help things. There are a few that may be closing at some point after the first of the year if things don't pick up though. I also know that several national companies with a presence in our area have not hired any additional help for the holidays, and are in the same situation as the locally-owned businesses are.
As for the crime rate dropping, I have seen the exact opposite where I work. We have had increases in vehicle prowls, panhandlers, shoplifting, and vandalism in recent months, and calling police does not do much good. "

TDN Bad Boy wrote on Dec 4, 2008 9:38 AM:

" Can anybody remember the last major construction projection for a new business in the Longview-Kelso area? I like the optimism but I think we are closer to a depression in this county than a recession. My guess is that unemployment will soon be in double figures. If and when it hits the teens we will be a depression. The only way out is plant the seed for growth. The city of Longview and Cowlitz County need to come up with an aggressive plan that will attract new businesses, mainly in manufacturing. The only way out of this hole is growth that brings jobs back to our area. Construction jobs from LNG would be a start but we need more of those projects within the city, not just the region. Increasing taxes on businesses and property will not work. "

Lucky7 wrote on Dec 4, 2008 11:23 AM:

" One of the few times I can say I'm pretty much in agreement TDN Bad Boy. However I have optimism that this won't go into a full blown depression but rather a very deep recession. "

fiscalconservative wrote on Dec 4, 2008 4:48 PM:

" I personally think that those who are struggling now that have kept their credit good, should catch a break from the credit reporting agencies like experian, trans-union and alike. This really is not fair since all of the problems the nation is experiencing was not caused by any the locals here, or in any rural american city! My wife an I have worked hard in our business and sacrificing our own pay to make sure our employees checks cashed...We have been to the local banks and they require more than we can offer. So, we rely on higher interest term notes that are doing us in like thousands of other small businesses. Oh well, we still have a little time left! "

bizowner wrote on Dec 4, 2008 6:24 PM:

" Its one thing to for leaders to talk optimistic - thats fine, but when our County Budget makers actually believe that smoke they are blowing thats nuts. Budgets will get much worse before they get better yet all we read about are increased taxes and fees - not prioritization and restraint on new spending. "

mike oxbigg wrote on Dec 4, 2008 7:23 PM:

" Hey Bizowner...take it easy on the county leaders. What have they done to you? "

Lucky7 wrote on Dec 4, 2008 9:11 PM:

" No doubt it's tough times right now. Being a business owner and knowing several others well I can pretty much tell you no one is immune to this current economic crisis. The first week of December will be my best week in 9 weeks, but nothing earth shattering and I'm not holding my breath for next week. I'm still considering one more layoff which would cut my workforce fully by 1/2 since September. I'm afraid a lot of business owners including myself are going to have to make very difficult decisions over the next few months since most economic reports I've seen don't see this improving until next summer at the earliest. Many of us won't survive that long. "

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