Story Photos
 Gov. Chris Gregoire cheers as she gets ready to address a crowd at the Washington State Democratic Party election night party Tuesday night in Seattle. Elaine Thompson / The Associated Press
|
Analysis: Gregoire's stunning Election Day win
Thursday, November 6, 2008 8:59 AM PST
Printable version
E-mail this articleNews Analysis by Curt Woodward
The Associated Press
OLYMPIA — Forget coattails. In Washington, it looks like Barack Obama was sporting a cape, Superman-style. That could explain this stunning scene: Gov. Chris Gregoire, supposedly the most endangered Democrat in the entire country, declaring victory on Election Day.
What, no re-counts? Not even one?
Votes are still trickling in, of course. But the woman jokingly dubbed “Landslide Chris” after her whisper-thin 2004 race could be marching back to Olympia with an honest-to-goodness mandate.
The president-elect’s assistance wasn’t lost on Gregoire. In a jubilant victory speech to roaring supporters Tuesday night, she dropped Obama’s name, oh, about a hundred times. And a few more times on Wednesday, after two-time Republican challenger Dino Rossi conceded the race.
“This is one of the most gratifying days I’ve had in four years,” an emotional Gregoire said, calling the win “a reinforcement of all of the hard work that we’ve put in, and all of the partnerships that we’ve formed in the last four years.”
Now comes the REALLY hard part, led by solving a projected $3.2 billion state budget deficit. The bean counters meet in two weeks to tell Gregoire and the Democratic Legislature whether that gap has grown or shrunk in the past quarter.
But for now, it’s worth sifting through the battlefield leftovers to see just how she wrapped it up.
Gregoire certainly had a formidable opponent in Rossi. In a sense, this election had been going on for five years, ever since the two launched their historic 2004 contest.
The pall of that impossibly close race — two recounts, a court case, and 133 votes — hung over this one from the beginning. Voters knew both candidates, and Rossi had underdog appeal as the guy who almost broke the Democrats’ grip on Olympia.
Gregoire also had a record this time, something Rossi could run against. The tone on both sides was much sharper in 2008, and money flowed like the mighty Columbia.
There were some new wrinkles, particularly the high-stakes politically motivated lawsuit. Gregoire’s allies launched that one, alleging improperly coordinated fundraising between Rossi and his building industry supporters.
It wound up pulling the Republican candidate from the campaign trail to give a contentious sworn deposition proclaiming his innocence. Such tactics may now become a regular feature of statewide campaigns here.
But overall, both sides were hoping to get swept up in Obama’s eventual landslide.
Rossi made early and extended pitches for Obama voters, hoping to bring in more “Dinocrats” than he got in 2004. He launched up the same kind of optimistic “change” message that drove Obama’s campaign, at one point making a masterful play by airing a TV ad during Obama’s heavily watched nomination speech.
He was close with Gregoire for much the race’s polling cycle, but may have peaked too early. He also faced a flood of negative national forces.
“If you had held the election on Sept. 30, Dino would have won by about six points,” said J. Vander Stoep, a senior Rossi adviser. “And then the national economy collapsed.”
Besides pulling down Republican candidates, from John McCain on down the ticket, the meltdown gave Gregoire cover on Rossi’s major line of attack, allowing her to say it was the national economy hurting the state’s finances, Vander Stoep noted.
Gregoire’s campaign definitely had its flaws. She allowed Rossi to define her early on, and took some time to formulate a
“change” theme that tied her campaign to Obama’s.
Even in victory, there were perplexing missteps. Gregoire’s campaign, for instance, didn’t provide the governor — or even a senior campaign official — for an interview Tuesday night or Wednesday with The Associated Press, which has the widest statewide reach of any news organization.
Still, Gregoire seemed to come on strong in the end. She did play the financial meltdown for all it was worth, tying Rossi to the deeply unpopular President Bush.
When Rossi indicated general support for the notion of a training wage below Washington’s nation-leading minimum wage, Gregoire’s campaign pounced. The attack ads fudged the edges of Rossi’s statement, making it sound more emphatic, but by that time, we were swimming in campaign half-truths.
Gregoire also seemed to loosen up a bit down the stretch. Legendarily stern and serious on the stump, her final debate performance showed off a more genuine touch. Gregoire copped to her tough reputation and coyly asked: What’s wrong with tough?
Democratic strategist Cathy Allen, a friend and informal adviser, said two more important factors helped seal the deal for Gregoire: an energized, late-breaking ground game and potential backlash from third-party attack ads.
Allen said the architects of Gregoire’s field operations would become new stars in the political world — in one case, when polling lines in crucial Pierce County were long and frustrating, the campaign used an Obama cell-phone list to text-message a “hang in there” nudge to Democratic voters.
That showed Gregoire wasn’t just grasping for Obama’s help, Allen said. She was also adopting his tactics and building a bridge back to the Democratic nominee — a tricky two-step, convincing Washingtonians that keeping Gregoire in power was the same as handing it anew to Obama.
“She had to be able to say, ’I am the kind of change he’s talking about,’ and that is the bottom line,” Allen said. “That’s what she had to do, and that’s what she did.”
lord gregor wrote on Nov 5, 2008 7:42 PM:
turkeyhunterman wrote on Nov 5, 2008 8:00 PM:
The Zipster wrote on Nov 5, 2008 9:51 PM:
UW Squirrels wrote on Nov 5, 2008 11:35 PM:
unnown01 wrote on Nov 5, 2008 11:36 PM:
Gondolapete wrote on Nov 6, 2008 12:19 AM:
stink wrote on Nov 6, 2008 7:30 AM:
Gregoire 14 counties, Rossi 25. There are 39 counties in the state turkeydude.
Also, ballots are still being counted across the state. When all ballots are tabulated it look like close to 74% turn out.
Source: http://vote.wa.gov/elections/wei/VoterTurnout.aspx?ElectionID=26
Yes, a source!! Not just spouting off garbage like most here. "
escaped wrote on Nov 6, 2008 7:48 AM:
ItsKarma wrote on Nov 6, 2008 8:20 AM:
TDN Bad Boy wrote on Nov 6, 2008 8:34 AM:
Past Month's Most Commented Stories