Voter forum examines role of economy in presidential election
Friday, October 10, 2008 6:52 PM PDT
By Erik Olson
Printable version
E-mail this articleIn 1992, then-Gov. Bill Clinton presciently said, “It’s the economy, stupid,” before sailing to a surprisingly easy victory over incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush.
That’s an iconic phrase from that election, and it’s one that holds true again this election, a Lower Columbia College economics instructor told a crowd of about 70 Thursday afternoon at the Rose Center.
“It’s not entirely about the economy... but it certainly is significant,” instructor Jim Franz said at the third of the college’s nine Community Conversations lectures.
Thursday’s lecture, “Food, Gas & Mortgages: The Role of the Economy in the 2008 Campaign,” was especially pertinent in this time of a banking crisis, tanking stocks and higher unemployment. Polls have shown the economy is heavily on the minds of voters, and it’s become the top issue in recent debates between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.
Historically, a poor economy has been tough to overcome for the incumbent party, Franz said. Most people follow the unemployment rate because it hits closer to home, but the national gross domestic product — the total amount of goods produced annually — is the bigger indicator, he said.
“That’s really our measure of whether we have a recession or not,” Franz said.
The slumping GDP felled Bush’s campaign in 1992, and a thriving economy helped Ronald Reagan breeze to re-election in 1984. Using two different models incorporating the GDP and popularity of the incumbent party’s president, Franz showed the group predictions of Obama taking between 51 percent and 53 percent of the vote.
But blips on the line graphs measuring Americans’ buying and selling aren’t the only predictors of electoral success, Franz warned. In 1976, national production was growing, but incumbent Gerald Ford lost in the wake of his pardon of Richard Nixon, Franz said.
This year, Franz added, Obama’s race and McCain’s selection of a woman, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, as his running mate could play roles not easily identified in economic charts.
The overall goal of the talk was for people to gain a clearer picture of the economy in the context of politics, Franz said.
“Sometimes people say the word, and it doesn’t have a lot of meaning in the way we use it,” Franz said.
John Green, a Longview retiree who attended the lecture, said he was interested in how economic models can predict presidential races with decent accuracy, despite many uncertain factors.
The economy is large on the mind of Green, an Obama supporter, because his retirement is tied to the stock market.
“It has a big impact,” Green said.
Upcoming LCC forums
Oct. 16: How Big is Your Carbon Footprint? The Politics of the Environment, led by Dave Cordero and Louis La Pierre, LCC faculty
Oct. 23: Critical Paths: American Health Care, led by Jim Meskew, Independent Consultant, & Alicia Thompson, Deputy Director, Community Health & Communicable Diseases
Oct. 30: The Struggle for Conscience, Conviction and Kind: Religion & American Politics, led by Dennis Shaw, LCC faculty
Nov. 6: Framing the Issues: Media Coverage in Politics, featuring Bob Gaston, former managing editor, The Daily News; Bob Martinson, former local news editor, Pittsburg Post-Gazette, and former editor at The Daily News; and Cal Fitzsimmons, editor, The Daily News
Nov. 13: Law & Order: The Future of the Courts, led Jerry Zimmerman, LCC faculty
Nov. 20: American Foreign Policy: What Does the Future Hold?, led by David Benson, LCC faculty
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