Scientist to refine tsunami estimate
Friday, December 9, 2005 10:13 PM PST
By Don Jenkins
Printable version
E-mail this articleAn East Coast scientist who warned that a Pacific Ocean earthquake could trigger larger-than-expected waves racing toward the Northwest coast said Friday he will work with Washington geologists to fine-tune his calculations.
"In the scientific world, we like to ask tough questions. It doesn't mean we're 100 percent sure," University of Rhode Island ocean engineering professor Stephan Grilli said. "Our work is preliminary."
Using data collected from the earthquake that triggered the Asian Tsunami in 2004, Grilli estimated a similar geologic shift off the Northwest coast would produce waves taller than 90 feet --- three times higher than previously predicted by geologists.
Grilli made the analysis at the request of the Discovery Channel, which partially funded the exploration by Grilli and others of the Indian Ocean floor where the quake occurred.
The Discovery Channel this week used his analysis to promote a Dec. 18 documentary entitled, "America's Tsunami: Are We Next?"
A press release, which Grilli called "too alarmist," said the Cascadia subduction zone off the Northwest coast was a "mirror image" of Indian Ocean fault lines.
"Using new data and improved models from the expedition, scientists predict a tsunami three times the size of current estimates," the press release stated.
The University of Rhode Island put out a press release quoting Grilli as saying Washington and Oregon communities "need to be even better prepared" than they are now.
But Grilli said his analysis didn't take into account the coastline's topography, which would have an effect on the size of waves to actually reach shore. Nor did Grilli pinpoint where the largest waves would land.
"The numbers don't really mean anything right now," he said. "A lot more work needs to be done."
Grilli said he had no plans to follow up his analysis until it generated interest and skepticism in the Northwest. "Now, I'm interested," he said.
Grilli has been in contact with one of the skeptics, Washington Department of Natural Resources geologic-hazards manager Tim Walsh.
Grilli said he and Walsh will collaborate to study whether the unexpectedly massive uplift in the Indian Ocean floor could happen in the Cascadia subduction zone and with what consequences.
"The question is still in the air whether it's fully realistic for Cascadia," Grilli said. "I think the message is, we ought to take a look in light of what happened" in the Indian Ocean.
The last great Cascadia earthquake occurred in 1700.
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