Potential post-Saddam players include past rivals
Thursday, November 7, 2002 8:49 AM PST
By Associated Press
Printable version
E-mail this articleIRBIL, Iraq -- At a bookstore near the old bazaar, a faded poster shows the leaders and symbols from all the main factions opposing Saddam Hussein.
With markers, someone has tried to map out the shifting alliances and disputes between them. PUK, Sunnis, KDP, Shiites, Iran, exiles, Turkish Kurds -- it looks like a maze.
The list of potential post-Saddam players is a roster of those who have tried -- and failed -- to defeat his regime. The worry, experts say, is a clash of competing visions and old rivalries once their common enemy is gone.
"We only agree we want Saddam gone. After that, it's anyone's guess what will happen," said Ala Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the two main factions controlling the Western-protected Kurdish safe haven in northern Iraq.
In the rest of Iraq, currently under Baghdad's rule, a power scramble would likely draw in opposition groups stretching from Washington through London to Tehran. But there is only so much room at the top, analysts warn.
"It's a puzzle that could be put together in many different ways. But certainly there will be someone who is not satisfied," said Tim Garden, a specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.
In sheer numbers, the biggest bloc is Shiite Muslims. They outnumber Iraq's Sunni Muslims -- the core of Saddam's 23-year rule -- almost 2-to-1 but remain largely excluded from important posts.
The Shiites' fate took a different path than the Kurds since their failed uprisings following the 1991 Gulf War.
Like the Kurds, the Iraqi Shiite heartland is in a no-fly zone patrolled by U.S. and British warplanes. But they lack the Kurds' political organization and distinct ethnic bonds. Instead of striving for semi-autonomy in southern Iraq, the main Shiite opponents of Saddam took up exile in neighboring Iran -- the political and financial sponsor of Shiite causes around the Middle East.
The main Iraq Shiite exile faction, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, doesn't object to joining a U.S.-led attack. But it strongly opposes any perceived American-assembled government rising from the ashes, said the group's leader, Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, at his heavily guarded compound in Iran's capital, Tehran.
This is where it could get sticky.
Iran's powerful Islamic theocracy could use its influence to try to undermine any post-Saddam establishment they consider too close to Washington.
Iran has no affection for Saddam, whose forces it fought in a 1980-88 war. But Iranian leaders worry about becoming encircled by pro-Western states, including the post-Taliban government in Afghanistan and expanding U.S. ties in central Asia and Azerbaijan. Inside Iran, pro-Western sentiment is noticeable among groups opposed to the religious leadership.
"Iran definitely feels the West -- and the U.S. in particular -- closing in," said Ted Carpenter, an expert at the Cato Institute in Washington. "Iran does not want to be left on the sidelines in Iraqi developments."
The current post-Saddam cards, however, appeared clearly stacked in favor of the West. From their bases in London or Washington, the other main exile factions are already trying to stake their claims.
The groups range from former Iraqi officers who led a failed 1996 coup attempt, through a small movement seeking return of the monarchy, to the main umbrella organization, the Iraqi National Congress, that once was awash in U.S. funding but is no longer considered the obvious successor to Saddam's regime.
A major meeting of exile Iraqi dissidents is planned for Nov. 22 in Brussels, Belgium. The goals are ambitious: setting aside rivalries and seeking consensus on a future leadership.
Another challenge is to head off internal chaos if Shiites, Kurds and others seek reprisals against Saddam's Sunni supporters.
Secretary of State Colin Powell has outlined one possible scenario if anti-Saddam factions fail to unite: a Pentagon-led interim administration similar to those imposed in Europe and Japan following World War II.
A big wild card, however, is the Iraqi Kurds.
Kurdish leaders insist the borders of their region extend to the oil-rich areas now under Saddam's control. Moves to take the oil field in Kirkuk and near Mosul could outrage neighboring Turkey, which has its own restive Kurdish minority and has often sent forces into northern Iraq to attack Turkish Kurdish rebel bases.
Turkey strongly opposes any steps by Iraqi Kurds to bolster their autonomy, fearing it could embolden Turkish Kurdish militias to escalate their fight.
Iraqi Kurdish leaders have tried to calm Turkey by pledging to remain within the country. Turkey's Justice and Development Party, which won Nov. 3 elections, is taking the same stance.
The party's deputy chairman, Yasar Yakis, said Turkey would oppose any efforts toward "the division of a neighboring country."
Iraqi Kurdish leaders all distance themselves from any breakaway aspirations, but say independence sentiment may not remain contained forever.
"No Kurd can justifiably argue against the right of self determination. ... Definitely the Kurdish people, like every other nation, have the right to self-determination," said Barham Salih, prime minister of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or PUK. "No one can deny us that right."
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